LNG in Mozambique

Updated on 29th June 2018

Article published at the China-Lusophone Brief, on 21st March 2018

Article also published in How We Made it in Africa, on 24th May 2018

Also published at the NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies, on 25th May 2018

Mozambique, which gained independence from Portugal in 1975, is home to a culturally diverse population of 29 million people. Before the Portuguese invasion in the sixteenth century, the region was an important trading centre for slaves, gold and ivory for Arabs and Persians, centred on the Island of Mozambique, which lies off northern Mozambique’s current borders. The country got its name from its first known ruler, a Muslim Arab emir named Mussa ibn Bique. The Portuguese started referring to the region as the “Lands of Mussa ibn Bique” and from there the name was simplified to Mozambique.[1]

The sixteen years of civil war post-independence left various scars. However, improvements in the poverty level of the population have been observed over the past 25 years. Mozambique has nearly halved the share of its population consuming below a basic needs poverty line. Although the country remains poor, with 49.2% of the population living in poverty, Mozambique is now approaching the living standard levels of other low income African countries, like Tanzania.[2]

The discovery of immense natural gas reserves one decade ago creates hope that the economic situation and, consequently, living standards of the population will improve dramatically. With proven reserves of 100 trillion cubic feet, Mozambique ranks 12th among the countries with the largest natural gas proven reserves, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA (Figure 1).[3] Mozambique’s economy is ticking on the royalties and the range of direct and indirect businesses and jobs expected to be created once these reserves start producing.

Graph1

Figure 1 – Top 20 Countries by Proved Reserves of Natural Gas, 2017

Most of the natural gas discoveries were found in the Rovuma Basin, offshore Cabo Delgado state, northeast of Mozambique, during 5 years of exploration and appraisal activities. The Rovuma Basin is located close to the border between Tanzania and Mozambique, at the Rovuma Delta (Figure 2). The offshore regions that are receiving most of the attention and where plans for development are ongoing, are Areas 1 and 4, controlled respectively by oil and gas giants Anadarko and Eni (Figure 3).

Area 1 hosts the Prosperidade and Golfinho/Atum complexes, which further host several deepwater discoveries, including Windjammer, Barquentine, Lagosta, Camarao, Golfinho, Orca, and Atum, at an average water depth of 1,600m. Area 4 is where the Coral field is located, at water depths ranging between 1,500m and 2,300m, and situated 241.4km northeast of Pemba, capital of Cabo Delgado province.[4]

Pic1.png

Figure 2 – Natural Gas Reserves in Mozambique

Pic2

Figure 3 – The most prosperous offshore natural gas reserves are located in Areas 1 and 4

In December 2012, Anadarko reached a joint agreement with Eni to establish the foundational principles for the coordinated development of the common natural gas reservoirs spanning both offshore Areas 1 and 4. Additionally, multiple Front-End Engineering and Design (FEED) contracts were awarded for both onshore liquefied natural gas (LNG) construction and offshore installation.

A total of 60 production wells are proposed to be drilled at Offshore Areas 1 and 4 during the initial phases, which can increase to 120 wells in subsequent stages of the project. The wells will be drilled using drill ships.

The output from the gas fields in Area 1 will be conveyed to the onshore LNG plant to be built on the Afungi peninsula in Cabo Delgado province. The natural gas will be transported from the offshore platform to the onshore processing facility through a 45km-long subsea pipeline. Once the gas reaches the LNG plant, it is cooled down to -162oC (-260oF) and transformed into liquid in order to be exported to other countries through cryogenic vessel tanks or liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers.

The project aims at initially supplying approximately 100 million cubic feet of natural gas a day (MMcfd) to the onshore LNG facility, which will primarily be equipped with two LNG trains with processing capacity of 6.0 million tons per year (mtpa) each. It will also include two 180,000m³ LNG storage tanks, condensate storage facilities, a multi-berth marine jetty, and ancillary utilities and infrastructure.[5] The LNG processing plant gets the name “LNG train” due to its several parallel units arranged in a sequential manner.

Other onshore infrastructure will include an airfield, power generation facilities (gas turbines), waste disposal facilities and water and wastewater treatment facilities.

Area 4, which lies too far from the coast to economically send gas ashore through pipelines, will have a floating LNG (FLNG) plant with a capacity of 3.4 million tons of LNG per year (mtpa). A FLNG has equivalent processing capabilities as onshore LNG facilities. The difference is that the former is built on top of an offshore platform.

The construction of this engineering feat will take place in South Korea. The Coral South FLNG project in Area 4 received a final investment decision (FID) in June 2017, with an investment of US$ 8 billion.[6] Around 60% of the cost of the FLNG facility will come from project finance, the first instance of such an arrangement for a liquefaction floater, according to Eni. Fifteen international banks have subscribed, backed by five export credit agencies.[7] South African lender Standard Bank and its 20% shareholder, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), say they are the largest lenders in Eni’s Coral South FLNG.[8]

Area 1 Working Interest Area 4 Working Interest
Anadarko (Operator) 26.5% Eni East Africa (Operator)[9] 70.0%
Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos 15% Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos 10.0%
Mitsui & Co 20.0% Kogas 10.0%
ONGC Videsh 16.0% Galp Energia 10.0%
Bharat 10.0%
PTT Exploration & Production 8.5%
Oil India 4.0%

Table 1 – Working Interest in the Offshore Areas 1 and 4 [10],[11]

Fact Sheet Area 1 Area 4
Operator Anadarko Eni
Water depth 1,600m 1,500m to 2,300m
Gas fields Prosperidade and Golfinho/Atum complexes Mamba complex; Coral South field
Recoverable gas reserve 75 Tcf 16 Tcf
Estimated production capacity 12.88 mtpa LNG with potential to upgrade up to 50.0 mtpa 3.3 mtpa LNG
Final Investment Decision (FID) date Still pending. Expected to happen in H1Y19 [21]. Anadarko needs to secure 8.5 mtpa in LNG contracts to trigger the FID[12] June 2017
Buyers 1.2 mtpa LNG over 15 years to Electricite de France (EDF) [13]

2.6 mtpa LNG over 20 years to Thailand’s PTT[14]

0.28 mtpa LNG over 15 years to Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power[15]

Tokyo Gas and Centrica[21]

Plus other undisclosed parties.

In total, there are 5.1 mtpa of contracts in hands

BP will buy 100% of the produced LNG over the first 20 years
First gas to be produced Pending FID Mid 2022

Table 2 – Fact Sheet Mozambique’s Natural Gas Developments[16]

The development of the onshore infrastructure will generate a large number of jobs to the local people, both directly and through supporting businesses that will inevitably blossom as a result of the additional people moving to the region and economic uplifting brought by the natural gas sales. Megaprojects such as this create an unmatched opportunity for the local population to develop technical and vocational skills, boosting the country to become competitive in the global arena.

A macroeconomic study conducted by South African Standard Bank in 2014 examined the impact of the development of the Area 1 project with 6 LNG trains on the Mozambican economy. The study found that, if the first gas indeed starts being produced by 2022, Mozambique has the potential to add 600,000 jobs to its economy by 2035 (Figure 4). This number can go even higher when considering the employment opportunities that will be created by Coral South (Area 4), which has already received the go-ahead from all parties involved.

Graph2

Figure 4 – Employment created is Area 1 starts producing gas by 2022 [17]

The study also points out that over 70% of the jobs that will be created by the Mozambique LNG projects will be of an un-skilled or semi-skilled nature. The migration of skilled labour to the region will also create prospects for skills transfer to occur among local workers, thus increasing the competency of the local labour force.

The impact of natural gas exploration in Mozambique will also significantly affect the country’s GDP. The economic contribution due to the development of just the Area 1 project is expected to account for 56% of Mozambique’s GDP by 2035 (Figure 5). Consequently, the GDP per capita of the population will also dramatically grow. Although GDP per capita can be distorted by high inequality in societies, it remains a sound indicator of the average income per person in an economy. Mozambique’s real GDP per capita in 2016 was US$ 382. With the fruits of the development of Area 1, GDP per capita income is expected to grow eleven-fold, reaching US$ 4,450 by 2035.

Graph3

Figure 5 – Mozambique’s GDP Forecast and gains from Natural Gas exploitation [18]

Another channel through which the Mozambican economy will benefit from the investments in natural gas exploration, is additional tax revenue, both income tax, from the new jobs created, and corporate tax, from Anadarko’s and Eni’s operations. Furthermore, the likely increase in household consumption expenditure due to greater household income, implies additional revenue from indirect taxes, including value added tax (VAT).

Mozambique occupies a privileged geographic location in relation to the trading routes for LNG, being able to reach customers in Asia-Pacific markets and to tap into the growing demand for energy in India and China. However, to really enjoy the spoils LNG sales will generate and to transform the quality of life of its population, Mozambique will need to work on improving its institutions, curbing corruption and enforcing the rule of law, besides building infrastructure that currently is inefficient or non-existent. Today, the country ranks at 138th in “Ease of Doing Business”, out of 190 countries,[19] and scores at 153th out of 180 countries in the “Corruption Perception Index.” [20] There is, therefore, a lot of work to be done and a lot to improve.

The author, Otavio Veras, is a Research Associate of the NTU-SBF Centre for African Studies, a trilateral platform for government, business and academia to promote knowledge and expertise on Africa, established by Nanyang Technological University and the Singapore Business Federation. Otavio can be reached at overas@ntu.edu.sg.  

[1] A origem do nome de Moçambique (Bigslam, Apr 2014)

[2] Pobreza e Bem-Estar em Moçambique: Quarta Avaliação Nacional (Ministério de Economia e Finanças de Moçambique, 2014-15)

[3] Proved Reserves of Natural Gas (U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA, 2017)

[4] Coral Field, Area 4, Rovuma Basin (Offshore Technology website)

[5] Mozambique Offshore Area 1 Project (Offshore Technology website)

[6] Mozambique’s offshore gas promises great rewards — but not yet (Financial Times, Nov 2017)

[7] Coral South kicks off Mozambique’s deepwater development (Offshore Magazine, Oct 2017)

[8] Standard Bank and ICBC financing Eni’s Coral South FLNG (LNG World News, Jan 2018)

[9] Eni East Africa is co-owned by Eni (35.7%), ExxonMobil (35.7%) and CNPC (28.6%)

[10] Mozambique LNG (Anadarko website)

[11] Eni completes sale of 25% interest in Mozambique Area 4 to ExxonMobil (Eni website, Dec 2017)

[12] Mozambique LNG ‘Halfway to Liquefaction’ as Contracting Advances, Says Anadarko (Natural Gas Intel, Feb 2018)

[13] Anadarko agrees Mozambique LNG sale, banks discuss finance terms (Reuters, Feb 2018)

[14] Anadarko narrows loss, inks Mozambique LNG supply deal (LNG World News, Nov 2017)

[15] Japan’s Tohoku Electric to buy LNG from Anadarko-led Mozambique project (LNG World News, Dec 2017)

[16] Coral South kicks off Mozambique’s deepwater development (Offshore Magazine, Oct 2017)

[17] Mozambique LNG: Macroeconomic Study (Standard Bank, Jul 2014)

[18] Mozambique LNG: Macroeconomic Study (Standard Bank, Jul 2014) and base GDP forecast by NTU SBF Centre for African Studies

[19] Economy Rankings (World Bank, 2017)

[20] Corruption Perceptions Index 2016 (Transparency International)

[21] Mozambique to become a gas supplier to world (Financial Times, Jun 2018)

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